A Puzzlement Within A Mystery

Commodity speculators seeking to diversify their “softs” portfolios beyond the usual trio of CSW (corn, soybeans & wheat) might benefit from the latest investment news from Thailand.  Crops estimates are forecasting a banner year for Thai harvest yields in the 2011 rice season.   So it might be a good idea do bulk up your short positions in Asian rice markets or build some fancy three-legged-straddle investment structures.

But wait –before you mortgage the bayou and phone your broker– there’s one slight catch.  The Thai rice crop prediction isn’t exactly USDA-grade information.  Instead …

Bountiful rice yields, an abundance of food, a fair amount of water and thriving foreign trade, were predicted for the coming crop year by soothsayers at the Royal Ploughing Ceremony at Sanam Luang yesterday.

The annual ceremony has been performed in Thailand for approximately 700 years to mark the beginning of the traditional rice planting season.  It is likely that this cultural practice was originally borrowed from China:  for centuries, emperors in China, Korea and Japan all performed similar ceremonies at the begininng of each growing season.   In the days of the god-king/emperor, this was of course a religious ceremony as well as a civic ritual.

On behalf of His Majesty the King, His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn presided over the ceremony, accompanied by His Royal Consort HRH Princess Srirasm, and HRH Princess Bajrakitiyabha.  Two sacred white oxen, named Phra Ko Fah and Phra Ko Sai, were taken to plough the ceremonial ground at Sanam Luang, herded by Agriculture and Cooperatives Permanent Secretary Chalermporn Pirunsarn in the role of Lord of the Plough.  Mr. Chalermporn was accompanied by four kuharb plough-assistants.
The kuharb thong (golden carrier) maidens were Duenpen Jaikong, of the Queen Sirikit Department of Sericulture, and Sornchanok Wongprom, an engineer attached to the Fisheries Department.  The kuharb ngern (silver carrier) maidens were Siriluck Somsakul, an accountancy specialist from the Royal Irrigation Department, and Jessadaporn Sathapattayanont, of the Agricultural Extension Department.

Okay, okay, but what about those predictions?

The oxen were offered seven dishes to eat: grass, paddy [rice], maize [corn], sesame seeds, soybean, water and liquor.   The oxen ate grass, which led to a forecast that the country would enjoy an average water supply, plentiful rice yields, and an abundance of fruits and staple foods this year.   The oxen also drank liquor, yielding a prediction that communications would be convenient, foreign trade would flourish and the economy would prosper.

Best news of all??  There’s an election coming up in Thailand.  All the candidates  –of whatever party–  can now safely run on a campaign platform of prosperity and plenty.

Methinks I scent the morning air

H:  Madam, how like you this play?
Q:  The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
H:  O, but she’ll keep her word.

Lunghu, being of sound but devious mind, finds himself somewhat bmused by the media uproar –and US government reaction– over Wikileaks’ release of State Department cable traffic.   Not that he’s actually looked at any of the cables, mind you, because that would apparently be a security violation of some kind.

According to OMB, it would seem that even if Lunghu actually had a “Secret” security clearance and were a U.S. citizen, it would be a security violation to even view the contents of classified cables on a non-secure, non-government computer.   Even if said classified cables were published in their entirety by a foreign media organization in blatant violation of NOFORN restrictions.  My Gracious!

So, regardless of whether all these diplomatic cables (some merely classified “Confidential”) confirm or definitively refute some of Lunghu’s wild-eyed conspiracy theories, he can’t read ’em without risking a one-way ticket to Guantanamo.   Sheesh.   What a disappointment.

Well, lack of (dis)information has never prevented Lunghu from commenting in the past, so he certainly ain’t gonna overlook a truly golden opportunity for alternate hypothesizing.   What if … the Obama/Panetta administration had the inspiration to turn their large stock of sour lemons into lemonade, and sell it to a thirsty public?   [For those of you uncomfortable with metaphor, this means  turning a problem into an opportunity by using Wikileaks as a vehicle for spreading both disinformation and a strategic message.]   What on earth does Lunghu mean?

Consider:  you’re POTUS and you’re trying to execute a foreign policy that advances the interests of the nation and enhances the security and stability of the status quo.   It ain’t working out so well.   Your so-called allies are two-faced or timorous; your low-key adversaries are throwing kidney punches at you in dark alleys around the world; your outright opponents are successfully sneaky and growing in power to defy you, while you have to be polite, smile to their faces, and suck it up.   Wouldn’t it be great to tell them how you really feel?   Because that might actually scare the shit out of some of them, embarrass others, and stroke the egos of those nations whom you stintingly praise.   Sounds like a plan.   But how to do it?   Ah hah!  Wikileaks!

Are you beginning to get the picture?   And this project is also a two-fer, because ex-post facto you can also salt the cable traffic with pseudo-documents that advance your current policy objectives by making it appear that particular views on certain topics were circulating a few years previously.   …  Julian Assange accepts the tainted trove in good faith, making him the perfect strawman.   When the inevitable public release occurs, your minions unleash the full fury of pained protest, high-road outrage, legal recourse, and semi-covert cyber measures.   Gotta put on a good show to really sell the authenticity of the material, after all.

So Lunghu is not at all dismayed that the US ambassador to Thailand sent a cable to State on August 13 2009 indicating that the extradition process in Viktor Bout’s case was going badly.   Rather fortuitous timing, it would seem.   And you never, ever, tell the ambassador –because he’s got to have deniability.

She’ll Be Alright, Mate

A massive software bug at National Bank of Australia has “wiped out a huge number of transactions, including salary payments and transfers, and crashed some ATMs.”   Ordinarily, Lunghu would immediately begin wondering how the lads Down Under had managed (on this particular occasion) to offend the People’s Republic of China.

Then Lunghu remembered that the Aussie government recently issued an offical report blaming PTTEP Australasia for a catastrophic 2009 oil rig blowout at its West Atlas platform in the Timor Sea.

Thailand increasingly seems a very interesting place, even without Viktor Bout.    In the meantime, James Trumbull might want to review (or revise) his comments from earlier this year.

Like Whitey on Rice

Seems like some folks either can’t learn from the Viktor Bout experience or still believe that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place.   News from Thailand that Thai police and the (US) DEA are torquing up a fugitve task force to search for eleven “major drug trafficking suspects believed to be in hiding in popular tourist provinces in Thailand.”

“Among the [wanted] traffickers are drug baron Wei Hsueh-kang … and U.S. fugitive James J. Bulger.“

If you’re looking for a nice, safe spot for your Thai vacation, Phuket, Chiang Mai and Pattaya are the tourism destinations where you won’t be able to take a step without tripping over law enforcement of some kind.   But look out for Whitey, that old guy in the Bosox hat:

“He has a violent temper and is known to carry a knife at all times.“

James "Whitey" Bulger

Burning Bright

News from Thailand that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will not attend the Global Tiger Initiative summit conference in St. Petersburg (Russia) during the week of November 21st.   Lunghu thinks that this is a wise decision, despite the assertion by government spokesman Panithan Wattanayakorn that the change of plans “has nothing to do with the extradition of accused arms smuggler Viktor Bout.”   Instead of the PM, Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti will attend the summit.

Lunghu thinks it would be a good idea if the Thai aircraft carrying Minister Suwit to  St. Petersburg did not rely on GPS navigation while in Russian airspace, and under no circumstances should the plane attempt to land in Smolensk –no matter what.

“Your bootlace has come undone. Careful you don’t trip and fall.”

Honor & Offer

When Lunghu recently remarked –in his customary offhand, casual style– that he expected the next few months to bring interesting news of Viktor Bout, he really didn’t have a 72-hour turnaround time in mind.   Still, there’s nothing quite like almost-instant gratification!  Wednesday e-ditions of the Bangkok Post report that:

1]  [Bout’s] sudden [attempted] extradition Wednesday  morning caught many Thai authorities by surprise as it was expected to be some time before he could be removed to US custody.  It is not known who orchestrated the rapid extradition of Mr Bout.
The Office of the [Thai] Attorney-General, upon hearing of his rapid extradition, yesterday tried to block the handover to the US authorities, who have sent a special jet and security personnel to Thailand.

2]   OAG said that Bout was required to appear before the Criminal Court on October 4th on the first hearing of new money laundering and fraud charges requested by US authorities. {Bout] cannot leave the country until the charges are heard and completed or are dropped.

3]  The [Thai] Corrections Department said it could not hand Bout over to the police until the new charges are dropped.

4]  The Foreign Affairs Ministry was also surprised at the swift extradition of Mr Bout [Wednesday] as it had not been made aware of it … normally, extradition proceedings need to go through the ministry first.

5]  Sirichoke Sopha, a close aide to the prime minister, admitted having visited Bout at Bangkok Remand Prison, but denied he tried to persuade Bout to implicate former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in arms dealing.  Sirichoke said that he [visited Bout]  to find out if the Russian arms dealer was involved in the transport of a large quantity of weapons found on a plane that made a stopover at Don Mueang airport in December last year.  The plane was heading for Sri Lanka at the same time Thaksin was in that country.

Apparently, none of this is considered newsworthy by US media, but Lunghu ain’t too surprised.  Although alternative explanations may abound, here are a few to consider:

1]  Perhaps US authorities leveraged their long-standing relationships with Thai military, intelligence and police notables to initiate a whirlwind expedited extradition process.   But rice bowls in OAG, Corrections, and the Foreign Ministry went unfilled, and objections were raised by those officials whose delicate sensibilities were offended.

2]  Thailand is renowned throughout the ASEAN region  –and perhaps the world–  for the scrupulous manner in which the rule of law is implemented.   Rules and processes are designed for sound reasons, and those processes must be honored in fact as well as in principle.

3]  When the United States Attorney General’s office says in an e-mail that “the prosecution of Viktor Bout is of utmost priority to the United States,” it sounds to Lunghu as though the inexorable economic law of supply and demand just sent the price of a scarce commodity way, way up.

4]  Aristotle’s Poetics calls for the explication of human drama through mythos, ethos, melos, and opsis (among other things).  Lunghu is supplying the dianoia and lexis.   Although there’s no absolute requirement for a third act in this Thai tragi-comedy, who knows what the playwright has in mind!