Archive for December, 2012

Go with the Flow

December 27, 2012

As you may recall, last year several feng shui soothsayers pointed out that the Year of the Dragon was the first of two consecutive years to be ruled by the Water element, a phenomenon known as ‘Long Flow Water.’  In their annual feng shui predictions for 2012, at least four of these ba-gua specialists forecast that dramatic flooding problems would result from the influence of the Water Dragon.  Let’s review their specific predictions and see how things ‘luo-panned’ out, (in descending order of forecast precision).

Alion Yeo noted, “Expect to see a lot of flooding in areas like Thailand and southeast China.

Raymond Lo warned of  “the potential danger of big flooding or tsunami, particularly in the Monkey (August) or Rat (December) months.

Edgar Lok Tin Yung said, “2012 is not a very stable year for Australia and New Zealand. There will be more water-related incidents or earthquakes.

JVM Francisco mentioned “Some parts of the world will be devastated by … extreme flooding.

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2012 Floods

Here’s a partial list of significant flood events reported during 2012.  Lunghu isn’t claiming that this list is complete, so his legions of readers are welcome to add to the list in their commentary.  What makes a flood significant?  Lunghu’s criterion is pretty simple: multiple human casualties and/or water volumes at least 2 standard deviations above the norm.  These 2012 flood events appear in more-or-less chronological order.

January 2012 Fiji floods
Fiji was hit by serious flooding during January 2012. Heavy rains in the middle of the month caused unprecedented flooding and landslides. Eight people were reported to have died in the floods.

2012 Loreto [Peru] floods
The 2012 Loreto floods were an orange-alert weather event that affected the Loreto Region of Peru from January until April 2012.

2012 Australia flooding
In early March 2012, sixteen river systems flooded in New South Wales. Queensland and northern Victoria also faced serious flood threats.  NSW has had the ninth wettest and fourth coldest summer on record.

2012 Great Britain and Ireland floods
The 2012 United Kingdom and Ireland floods are a series  of weather events that affected parts of Great Britain and Ireland periodically [April through July, September and November].

2012 Romanian floods
The 2012 Romanian floods were the result of an extreme weather event that struck Romania in late May 2012.

May 2012 Nepal floods
Nepal was hit by serious flooding during May 2012 when the Seti River suddenly released several days of heavy rainfall.  At least 26 people have been killed and 44 are missing.

2012 Russian floods
The 2012 Russian floods occurred in southwest Russia in early July, mainly in Krasnodar Krai near the coast of the Black Sea.  The flood was part of the aftermath of an intense storm that hit Krasnodar, dropping almost half a year’s worth of rainfall on the region over two days. 144 people died during the floods.

2012 Nigeria floods
The 2012 Nigeria floods began in early July 2012, and have killed 137 people and displaced over 120,000 people as of 9 September. From May to September, Nigeria has a rainy season and suffers from seasonal flash floods.

2012 North Korean floods
The 2012 North Korean floods began in mid-July 2012 when Tropical Storm Khanun affected parts of the country, killing at least 88 people and leaving more than 62,000 people homeless. Torrential rains on 29 and 30 July 2012 worsened the situation, causing additional damage.

July 2012 China floods
In a twenty-hour period on July 21, 2012, a flash flood hit the city of Beijing, reaching levels not seen in previous years. The flash flood was part of a series of flooding events across China that began in late spring of 2012 and continued during the summer. Also in July, areas of southwestern China, including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and northeastern China including Beijing, Hubei and Liaoning were badly affected.

2012 Brahmaputra floods
The 2012 Brahmaputra floods were an unprecedented flood event along the Brahmaputra river and its tributaries due to significant monsoon rains during August in eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.  124 people have been killed by flooding and landslides.

2012 Himalayan flash floods
2012 Himalayan flash floods are floods that occurred on the night of August 3, 2012 in the Himalayan region of Northern India: Uttarakhand; Himachal Pradesh; Jammu and Kashmir.

2012 Philippines floods
The 2012 Philippine floods followed an 8-day period of intense rain and thunderstorms that caused the Marikina and Tullahan Rivers to overflow in early August 2012.  Additional flooding occurred in December 2012 as a series of typhoons passed through the archipelago.

2012 Pakistan floods
The 2012 Pakistan floods began in early September 2012, resulting from heavy monsoon rains in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Upper Sindh, Southern Punjab and Baluchistan, breaking a 24-year rainfall record and leaving over 100 people dead in upper Sindh.

2012 Hurricane Sandy
In late October 2012 Extratropical Superstorm Sandy killed at least 253 people in seven countries as it traveled from the Caribbean to Canada’s Maritime Provinces via the Mid-Atlantic United States. Damage in the United States is estimated at over $63 billion USD.

2012 Malaysia floods
In December 2012, floods triggered by torrential monsoon rains in Malaysia forced almost 14,000 people to flee their homes and seek shelter  in three northeastern states – Terengganu, Pahang and Kelantan.

2012 Iraq floods
The streets of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, turned into rivers after three days of heavy December rain, with many parts of the capital are completely flooded.  A woman and three children died when their house collapsed in the village of Mohammed al-Sakran, northeast of Baghdad.

2012 Solomon Islands floods
In late December 2012, thousands of people were forced to flee rapidly rising rivers in the Solomon Islands as Cyclone Freda intensified into a Category 4 storm and headed towards New Caledonia.

Analysis

How do our feng shui prognosticators stack up against this flood of facts?  Fair-to-middlin’ (in Lunghu’s opinion).  First, the obvious:  tropical Asia routinely sees monsoon-related flooding during the rainy season –generally, May or June through September.  When you add in the annual parade of typhoons whipped up by the Pacific Ocean, there is rarely a shortage of potential flood events.  It doesn’t require Long Flow Water in a 10 Dragon year to trigger flooding in the Philippines, for example.  So in this context, ‘predictions’ such as “there will be extreme flooding in some parts of the world” should only be surprising if they DON’T occur.

When feng shui soothsayers actually add specifics, they’re starting to make real predictions.  But not necessarily more accurate ones.  Looking at the list of 2012 floods, Lunghu doesn’t see “a lot of flooding in areas like Thailand and southeast China.”  Unless the emphasis is on the phrase “areas like” –in which case you could try to make the argument that Malaysia and Myanmar are “like” Thailand, and southwestern China is “like” southeast China.  Close, but not quite.  Similarly, predicting “potential danger of big flooding in (August) or (December)” gives the soothsayer a two-legged chance to be half right: only one of two months has to flood in order to claim a successful prophecy.  And the Monkey month is right in the middle of the rainy season… That’s not going out too far on a limb.

Edgar Yung took a similar approach when he predicted “there will be more water-related incidents or earthquakes (in Australia and New Zealand during 2012).”  It’s true that (according to Kiwi government scientists) there were more than 13,000 earthquakes of Magnitude 2 or greater in New Zealand during 2012, but the country has a very active seismic profile, and thousands of minor and moderate quakes are recorded every year.  Australia river systems often flood during “the wet” (and then shrivel during “the dry”).   Should Mr. Yung get credit for an accurate prediction on the basis of a vaguely worded either-or statement about relatively common events?  Probably not.

Not to worry:  our soothsayers have another chance to get it right, because 2013 is the second year of Long Flow Water.  The Yin Water Snake (water over fire) will undoubtedly show the world some serious flooding.  Lunghu predicts that during 2013 the Zhengzhou/Kaifeng area of the Yellow River basin will be in the news for something other than the world’s longest bullet train railway line.

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Be nice, not naughty.

December 24, 2012

In 2013, a Yin Water year, the Celestial Stem is Gui.  The Earthly Branch in 2013 is Si:  its animal sign is the Snake, ruled by Fire.  This combination results in Water above Fire.  Since water is the destroyer of fire, this portends a destructive cycle marked by conflict.

Five_Elements_generation_cycle

In Chinese Five Element cosmology, Fire represents Joy and Courtesy.  Water symbolizes Fear.  Water on top (Fear) suppresses the fire below (Joy and Courtesy), so people will easily be impatient and rude in the Year of the Snake.  However, because Water feeds Wood and Wood feeds Fire, Wood can mediate and reduce the conflict between Water and Fire.  Wood represents kindness in the five elements, so kindness can reduce fear and nurture joy.

Be nice, not naughty.  Even after tomorrow.

 

Beseige Wei, Relieve Zhao

December 16, 2012

In order to better prepare for the Mayan Apocalypse and the Year of the Snake, Lunghu has decided to temporarily suspend his (overly) detailed explication of Sherman X. Lai’s Springboard to Victory.  There’s just so much else to cover before the end of 2012:

a photomontage retrospective of Lee Myung Bak's state visitors during the Year of the Dragon;

a photomontage retrospective of Lee Myung Bak’s state visitors during the Year of the Dragon;

a feng shui year-in-review;

a feng shui year-in-review;

a preview of the very first New Year's Day message from Luminous Comrade Kim Jong-un ...

a preview of the very first New Year’s Day message from Luminous Comrade Kim Jong-un …

… and much, much more.

It’s hard to imagine how all this can fit into the few remaining days of December.   To borrow a metaphor from the realm of celluloid cinema, some of this material may end up on the cutting room floor.   It’s a good thing that the world won’t end on the 21st of December.

14 Baktun

Have a Happy 14 Baktun!